Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.0530 level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the euro's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and ended up without any trades. Economic data from the Eurozone fully met economists' expectations, enabling the euro to hold its ground against the US dollar. Recent economic indicators suggest this trend could influence the European Central Bank's plans, potentially leading to rate cuts and creating opportunities for economic growth in the region. However, in the medium-term trend, this may negatively impact the euro's exchange rate.

Major price fluctuations in the pair are unlikely during the second half of the day. As Thanksgiving is observed in the US, markets and exchanges will be closed. With no fundamental statistics expected, volatility is likely to remain subdued. Trading might revolve around sudden spikes and reversals, as pairs often return to equilibrium price levels on such days. For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Today, the euro can be bought at the 1.0568 level (green line on the chart), targeting 1.0623. At 1.0623, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro is unlikely today. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise before buying.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro today if the 1.0530 level is tested twice consecutively and the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup will likely limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward the resistance levels of 1.0568 and 1.0633 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after the 1.0530 level is reached (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0466, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20–25 points from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline before selling.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro today if the 1.0568 level is tested twice consecutively and the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will likely limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the support levels of 1.0530 and 1.0466 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders:

Forex beginners must exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. Before significant fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if trading with large volumes.

Remember, a well-defined trading plan, such as the one outlined above, is crucial for success. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.