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09.04.2025 06:57 AM
What to Pay Attention to on April 8? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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Once again, no macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. However, the market is paying little attention to traditional macroeconomic indicators, so standard economic reports are unnecessary. The market is entirely consumed by the Global Trade War, which is gaining momentum with each passing day.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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There's no point in discussing anything other than Trump's trade war. Despite its short-term gains in recent days, the dollar's decline could continue indefinitely. We advise traders to pay close attention to the statements made by top officials of major countries and economic blocs regarding retaliatory tariffs. Trump has stated that any response to his measures aimed at "eliminating unfairness" will be met with harsh sanctions and new tariffs.

Yesterday, Donald Trump imposed additional tariffs on China. The European Union is preparing retaliatory duties of 25% on all imports from the U.S., which is unlikely to go unanswered by Trump. As a result, the dollar may continue to fall into the abyss, just like the U.S. economy, while the American president continues to speak of dozens of foreign leaders allegedly on their way to Washington to sign trade deals.

General Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in any direction, but the most likely scenario is a continued decline in the U.S. dollar. The market remains in panic and chaos, so price movements have no room for logic.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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