empty
08.04.2025 07:45 PM
NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

The NZD/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum, supported by renewed US dollar selling. However, given the underlying fundamentals, bullish traders are advised to proceed with caution.

Investors appear confident that the US economic slowdown, driven by tariffs, will soon force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle. Markets are already pricing in at least four rate cuts by the end of the year. This, combined with an improved global risk sentiment, is preventing the safe-haven US dollar from benefiting from its recent recovery, which in turn supports the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

Additionally, reports that China is considering preemptive stimulus measures to soften the impact of tariffs are also helping antipodean currencies, including the kiwi. For now, the NZD/USD pair has ended a two-day losing streak, pausing near the psychological 0.5500 level. However, the pair's upside remains limited amid the escalating US-China trade war.

Trump has imposed reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, which led to 54% levies from China. He has also threatened additional 50% tariffs if China does not lift its retaliatory duties. This creates an environment where it is prudent to wait for stronger follow-through buying before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has bottomed and is ready for a short-term rally.

From a technical standpoint, the pair has so far failed to overcome the 0.5595 hurdle. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in negative territory, indicating that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

Traders are also advised to refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes due Wednesday. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday respectively, will be key indicators for assessing the Fed's next steps and will likely have a significant impact on short-term US dollar price dynamics—and, consequently, on the NZD/USD pair.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Could the Fed Deliver a Surprise Following Its Meeting? (Possible Renewed Decline in Oil Prices and GBP/USD Pair)

The turbulence of recent months, driven by Donald Trump's actions and the release of fresh U.S. economic data, has done little to help investors understand the true direction of asset

Pati Gani 09:50 2025-05-05 UTC+2

The Market Doesn't Dare to Go Against the Crowd

"Dance while the music plays." The S&P 500 has just completed a 9-day rally—the longest since 2024—driven by a strong U.S. labor market report and upbeat earnings from tech giants

Marek Petkovich 08:49 2025-05-05 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 5: Bank of England and Fed Meetings

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to show any decisive movement on Friday—it neither rose nor fell significantly. Many analysts interpreted the U.S. labor market and unemployment data as positive simply

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-05-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 5: A New Week of Ordeals for the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair remained flat on Friday. The day saw both upward and downward movements. It is a notable achievement for the dollar that it has appreciated over

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-05-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Weekly Preview. The May FOMC Meeting and (Possible) U.S.-China Trade Talks

The new week promises to be informative for EUR/USD traders. Most notably, the next Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for May 6–7, will determine the central bank's future course of action

Irina Manzenko 05:53 2025-05-05 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 5? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. The only noteworthy release is the ISM Services PMI from the U.S., but serious doubts exist about whether the market will

Paolo Greco 04:15 2025-05-05 UTC+2

The U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

The hit parade of American news and events will continue. I still believe that the most significant factor in the market is Donald Trump's decisions. It's enough to compare

Chin Zhao 00:51 2025-05-05 UTC+2

British Pound: Weekly Preview

Recent reviews for both instruments have become predictable and even somewhat dull. The entire set of factors capable of influencing market sentiment and instrument movement boils down to the President

Chin Zhao 00:51 2025-05-05 UTC+2

The Euro: Weekly Preview

For several weeks, the euro has remained in a sideways range. It seems like every analyst has already pointed this out and noted that without news from Trump, there's

Chin Zhao 00:51 2025-05-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is attracting buyers today, breaking a three-day losing streak and attempting to build intraday momentum above the psychological 1.1300 level. This indicates a renewed interest from buyers

Irina Yanina 11:59 2025-05-02 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.