empty
19.03.2025 12:46 AM
The Euro Fires a Bazooka

The last time Germany armed itself was in the 1930s, it led to World War II. Today, German militarization is welcomed. According to Bloomberg estimates, fiscal stimulus packages worth around $1 trillion will add one percentage point to GDP in the near term, bringing it to 2% by 2024. This will push bond yields higher, and the narrowing spread with U.S. Treasuries will create a strong foundation for a long-term uptrend in EUR/USD. Is it time to jump on the last northbound train?

Germany's Bond Yield Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Germany's shift from fiscal restraint to fiscal expansion is being compared to the Marshall Plan, which helped rebuild Europe after World War II. As the U.S. moves to curb government spending, this divergence in fiscal policy—which previously favored EUR/USD bears—now favors the euro. Instead of American exceptionalism, we now see German exceptionalism.

The currency pair broke through key resistance at 1.091 and climbed toward 1.095, fueled by growing confidence in German business. The ZEW economic expectations index surged to its highest level since February 2022, driven by hopes for large-scale stimulus packages from Friedrich Merz. The current conditions indicator also improved.

Investor Confidence in Germany's Economy

This image is no longer relevant

The euro's long-term outlook remains positive, but the EUR/USD rally may be limited in the short term for three reasons. First, the "Trump trade" has run its course. Second, the market is overestimating the risk of a U.S. recession. Third, expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve monetary easing are likely exaggerated.

The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 7% from its September lows thanks to the "Trump trade"—investors betting on U.S. economic acceleration and the Fed keeping rates high. However, by mid-March, EUR/USD had returned to its levels from the November elections, recovering most of its previous losses. It's time to reap the profits.

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the U.S. economy is in good shape with no signs of an impending recession. Investors were spooked by Donald Trump's comments, where he did not rule out an economic slowdown or a series of disappointing data releases. However, other reports suggest that the economy remains stable. Renewed market optimism could drive renewed dollar buying alongside the gradual scaling back of expectations for Fed rate cuts. Markets anticipate a 70-basis-point cut by the end of 2025—likely too much.

On the daily EUR/USD chart, an "Anti-Turtles" pattern may be forming. A drop below support at 1.089 would be a signal to sell. However, buying strategies could regain momentum if the pair fails to reach that level or bounces back after testing it.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

DXY. The Dollar Holds Out Hope for a Recovery

Today, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, is in a phase of bullish consolidation after reaching an almost one-month high

Irina Yanina 11:31 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Markets Will Open Their Eyes and Close Their Ears

"Better go and buy stocks right now! Thanks to the White House's trade policy, the U.S. will attract $10 trillion in investment. This country will be like a rocket going

Marek Petkovich 11:10 2025-05-09 UTC+2

The U.S. and U.K. Sign a Trade Agreement

The British pound fell in response to the news that the U.S. and the U.K. had signed a trade agreement. However, there are many nuances that need to be clarified

Jakub Novak 09:31 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Has Everyone Started Believing Trump Again?

The U.S. dollar resumed its upward trajectory, while several risk assets dropped sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he expects the upcoming trade talks with China, scheduled

Jakub Novak 09:28 2025-05-09 UTC+2

The European Union Prepares New Tariffs Against the United States

It has come to light that the European Union is planning to impose additional tariffs on U.S. exports worth €95 billion if current trade negotiations with President Donald Trump's administration

Jakub Novak 09:25 2025-05-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 9: The Bank of England Confuses Traders Even More

The GBP/USD currency pair moved downwards first and then upwards on Thursday, indicating that the market has not yet decided how to interpret the Bank of England's meeting results

Paolo Greco 04:05 2025-05-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 9: Powell and the Fed Changed Nothing

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade within the same sideways channel, clearly visible on the hourly chart, almost until the evening. As we warned, the outcome

Paolo Greco 04:05 2025-05-09 UTC+2

BoE Is Concerned About the Economy

I regularly monitor three central banks, each representing an almost entirely different approach to monetary policy. On Thursday, the Bank of England cut interest rates, citing concerns over slowing economic

Chin Zhao 01:35 2025-05-09 UTC+2

The Fed Chair Is Steadfast as Steel

Everyone has already had time to review the results of the recent Federal Reserve meeting. In this article, I want to highlight a few positive points for the U.S. dollar

Chin Zhao 01:16 2025-05-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Bank of England Cuts Rates, Trump Signs Trade Deal with London

On Thursday, the Bank of England delivered a widely expected 25 basis point interest rate cut, and Donald Trump announced the conclusion of a trade agreement with the United Kingdom

Irina Manzenko 00:28 2025-05-09 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.