empty
16.04.2024 03:17 PM
AUD/USD: Australian dollar remains under pressure

The absence of significant macroeconomic reports from Australia suggests that the Australian dollar will keep trading in sync with the market, primarily reacting to the news from the United States and the dollar's dynamics.

The first rate cut by the RBA is projected for November, as inflation is expected to show a slight increase in the first quarter. With the expectations for a Fed rate cut pushed to September, the Aussie is likely to remain under pressure for objective reasons until the fall.

One of the main factors affecting domestic inflation remains the labor market. The very low unemployment rate paves the way for high wage growth rates, and improvements are not expected quickly—if unemployment was at 3.7% in February, it is expected to rise to 4.25% by the end of the year. The process of slowing average wage growth is too slow for the RBA to ignore this inflationary factor. Thus, the regulator will not cut rates until it is confident that wage growth has sufficiently slowed.

This image is no longer relevant

Prices for Australia's key export commodities (iron ore, LNG, and coal) have decreased in recent months, putting pressure on the trade balance, despite higher prices for oil and most industrial metals. A rise in copper and aluminum quotes, supporting commodity currencies, is primarily linked to a surge of interest in artificial intelligence and is not related to the Australian economy.

Further uplift in the global industrial cycle and/or additional stimulus in China could help reverse the situation, but at the moment, there is no reason to abandon a bear case scenario.

The net short position on AUD decreased by $572 million over the reporting week to -$6.121 billion. A decline in the volume of short positions allowed the price to stay near the long-term moving average, but overall positioning remains bearish.

This image is no longer relevant

The AUD/USD pair fell in sync with the market, ending its February-March correction. If the price fixes below the support level of 0.6444, the pair is expected to extend losses and head towards the support area of 0.6320/30. In case of a rebound after a week-long decline, the pair will face resistance at 0.6444. A rise above this level seems unlikely.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Could the Fed Deliver a Surprise Following Its Meeting? (Possible Renewed Decline in Oil Prices and GBP/USD Pair)

The turbulence of recent months, driven by Donald Trump's actions and the release of fresh U.S. economic data, has done little to help investors understand the true direction of asset

Pati Gani 09:50 2025-05-05 UTC+2

The Market Doesn't Dare to Go Against the Crowd

"Dance while the music plays." The S&P 500 has just completed a 9-day rally—the longest since 2024—driven by a strong U.S. labor market report and upbeat earnings from tech giants

Marek Petkovich 08:49 2025-05-05 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 5: Bank of England and Fed Meetings

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to show any decisive movement on Friday—it neither rose nor fell significantly. Many analysts interpreted the U.S. labor market and unemployment data as positive simply

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-05-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 5: A New Week of Ordeals for the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair remained flat on Friday. The day saw both upward and downward movements. It is a notable achievement for the dollar that it has appreciated over

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-05-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Weekly Preview. The May FOMC Meeting and (Possible) U.S.-China Trade Talks

The new week promises to be informative for EUR/USD traders. Most notably, the next Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for May 6–7, will determine the central bank's future course of action

Irina Manzenko 05:53 2025-05-05 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 5? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. The only noteworthy release is the ISM Services PMI from the U.S., but serious doubts exist about whether the market will

Paolo Greco 04:15 2025-05-05 UTC+2

The U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

The hit parade of American news and events will continue. I still believe that the most significant factor in the market is Donald Trump's decisions. It's enough to compare

Chin Zhao 00:51 2025-05-05 UTC+2

British Pound: Weekly Preview

Recent reviews for both instruments have become predictable and even somewhat dull. The entire set of factors capable of influencing market sentiment and instrument movement boils down to the President

Chin Zhao 00:51 2025-05-05 UTC+2

The Euro: Weekly Preview

For several weeks, the euro has remained in a sideways range. It seems like every analyst has already pointed this out and noted that without news from Trump, there's

Chin Zhao 00:51 2025-05-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is attracting buyers today, breaking a three-day losing streak and attempting to build intraday momentum above the psychological 1.1300 level. This indicates a renewed interest from buyers

Irina Yanina 11:59 2025-05-02 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.