empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
07.04.2025 09:44 AM
The Market Left Empty-Handed
Open trading account Open demo account

The market appeared to have bottomed out; however, someone knocked from below. A two-day selloff triggered by Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs turned out to be the fourth-worst in the history of the broad stock index since its inception in 1957. The 10.5% drop was only surpassed by the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008, and Black Monday in 1987. This current plunge has wiped out $6.6 trillion in U.S. stock market capitalization — yet no one is rushing to buy the dip. It could still get worse.

Historically, during recessions, the forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 has averaged around 15.6. Despite the March selloff, this figure still sits at 23. The market has significant potential to decline further, preventing investors from attempting to "catch falling knives."

S&P 500 P/E Ratio Trends During Recessions

This image is no longer relevant

The bearish drivers haven't gone anywhere — in fact, Trump's massive tariffs have only intensified them. JPMorgan forecasts a 0.3% contraction in U.S. GDP for 2025, revising its previous estimate of +1.3% to a recession scenario. And even though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent points to a strong labor market and claims no signs of an economic downturn, investors remain skeptical. While March employment figures were surprisingly strong, January and February data were revised downward, and unemployment rose. This may well be the calm before the storm.

China's retaliation — a 34% tariff on U.S. imports — fueled the fire. It once seemed that China would be forced to concede again, as it did in 2018–2019. But this time, the U.S. is against the entire world, not just one country. Washington may end up empty-handed, especially since Beijing has hinted at large-scale stimulus to soften the tariff blow. Europe is heading in the same direction, maintaining the attractiveness of equities in those regions and encouraging capital to shift away from North America.

And investors' behavior makes sense. Thanks to the strengthening dollar, Europeans have gained 490% on the S&P 500 over the past 15 years, while Americans earned just 390%. In contrast, European stock indices grew 220% in euros but only 150% in dollars. Pictet Asset Management is building its strategies based on the assumption that the USD index could decline by 10–15% over the next five years. So, is it surprising that capital flows eastward across the Atlantic?

Volatility Index Spreads (Fear Index Trends)

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Moreover, the White House's tariffs appear to have hit U.S. equities harder than any other market. This is reflected in the VIX volatility index ratios, which have reached their highest levels since the pandemic.

Technically, on the daily S&P 500 chart, the risk of further correction increases toward the pivot levels at 4910 and 4925. Previously opened short positions in the broad index should be held and periodically increased.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
Bitcoin Has Completed Its Minimum Task Bitcoin has broken above the 100,000 mark, entered a consolidation phase, and confirmed the familiar pattern. Previously, after breaking through psychologically significant levels, the cryptocurrency experiences a period of stagnation
Marek Petkovich
00:23 2025-05-13 +02:00
1015
Technical analysis
Trading Signals for BITCOIN for May 12-15, 2025: sell below $106,250 (200 EMA - 21 SMA) Early in the American session, Bitcoin is trading around $104,250, above the 21st SMA and within the bullish trend channel formed on May 4th. We observe exhaustion. During the last
Dimitrios Zappas
17:34 2025-05-12 +02:00
1135
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin Has Completed Its Minimum Task

Bitcoin has broken above the 100,000 mark, entered a consolidation phase, and confirmed the familiar pattern. Previously, after breaking through psychologically significant levels, the cryptocurrency experiences a period of stagnation
Marek Petkovich 00:23 2025-05-13 UTC+2

Has Common Sense Prevailed? (High probability of #SPX growth and a drop in gold prices)

On Monday, the United States announced "significant progress" in trade talks with China following a two-day meeting in Switzerland over the weekend. Markets reacted to this news with a gap-up
Pati Gani 11:00 2025-05-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD. An Important Week for the Pound

The GBP/USD pair is again under pressure due to the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Last week, the pound attempted to break into the 1.34 zone in reaction
Irina Manzenko 10:49 2025-05-12 UTC+2

The Market Will Face Reality

How quickly things change on the financial markets! Before America's Liberation Day, investors viewed the 10% universal import tariff as disastrous. Now, it's seen as the most favorable option
Marek Petkovich 09:18 2025-05-12 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 12? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday. Fundamental developments will also be limited, but at this point, it is entirely unclear which factors are influencing price formation. The pound
Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-05-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Prepare for Price Turbulence

The upcoming week promises to be volatile. First, the market will react to the results of the Geneva meeting between representatives of the US and China. Second, key reports
Irina Manzenko 05:34 2025-05-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 12: Business as Usual...

The GBP/USD currency pair moved slightly higher on Friday, although the British pound had no real reason to grow that day or throughout the week. Let us recall that
Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-05-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 12: The Dollar's Success Is Unstable

The EUR/USD currency pair slightly rebounded upward on Friday, and overall, it has been gradually sliding down for several weeks. The movement has been so sluggish that we recently classified
Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-05-12 UTC+2

US Dollar. Weekly Preview

The U.S. economic calendar for the upcoming week won't be overloaded with data. If we leave out the secondary reports, only April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains, which will
Chin Zhao 00:59 2025-05-12 UTC+2

British Pound. Weekly Preview

The wave pattern of the pound and the market's interest in the news currently reflect those of the euro. Last week, the market had a chance to reduce demand
Chin Zhao 00:59 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 04:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD. May 12. The Ukraine conflict may be resolved
10:04 2025-05-12
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-05-14 UTC--4
The Market Will Face Reality
09:18 2025-05-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 04:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD. An Important Week for the Pound
10:49 2025-05-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD Overview – May 12: Business as Usual...
03:48 2025-05-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 UTC--4
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 12. The Euro Is in No Hurry to Fall, and the Dollar to Rise
03:48 2025-05-12
Trading plan
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.