Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 154.25 in the first half of the day occurred as the MACD indicator began to decline from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 50 points to the target level of 153.74. Buying on the rebound from that level resulted in an additional 20 points of profit. Later today, reports on U.S. building permits and new housing starts are expected. If the data exceeds expectations, we may see a short-term rise in the US dollar and a corresponding decline in the yen.

However, the intraday downward momentum will persist. The higher the USD/JPY pair rises, the more attractive it becomes for new sales. For intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches around 154.14 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 154.97 (thicker green line on the chart). At 154.97, I will exit the buy position and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point move. Today, the pair is likely to rise only within a corrective range.Note: Ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning its upward move before entering.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 153.37, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal. Expected targets are 154.14 and 154.97.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 153.37 (red line on the chart), targeting a quick drop to 152.74. At this level, I will exit and buy back, aiming for a 20-25 point upward correction. The higher the dollar rises, the greater the likelihood of renewed pressure on the pair.Note: Ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning its downward move before entering.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 154.14, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expected targets are 153.37 and 152.74.

Chart Key Points

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line: Target price for locking in profits; further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line: Target price for locking in profits; further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator: Use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide when entering trades.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should approach market entry decisions cautiously. Avoid trading during the release of major economic reports to minimize exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop orders to limit potential losses. Without stop orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit. This risk is especially high if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Finally, always trade with a clear plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are often a losing strategy for intraday traders.