Forex Analysis & Reviews: 19.02.2025 - Why Is the Cryptocurrency...

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19.02.2025 10:30 AM

Why Is the Cryptocurrency Market Under Pressure? (Potential Bitcoin Rise and Litecoin Decline)

If we look at the performance of major cryptocurrencies, their last notable price surge against the US dollar was observed at the conclusion of the US presidential election campaign.

Many tokens nearly doubled in price in anticipation of Donald Trump's decisive victory, reflecting expectations of a shift in the US economic policy paradigm. This excitement was further fueled by reports that Trump himself had launched a cryptocurrency project.

With the election of the 47th president and his statements on the future role of cryptocurrencies in the national economy, crypto traders became noticeably optimistic, actively accumulating tokens in the hope that other market participants would follow. However, the situation turned out to be more complex. The market has not yet signaled further price increases; instead, many traders used Trump's victory as an opportunity to lock in profits.

While some market participants are trying to hold Bitcoin and Litecoin near their recent highs, the overall picture suggests that broad-based catalysts for further growth are currently lacking. Until more favorable conditions emerge, cryptocurrencies are likely to trade within sideways ranges.

Why Is the Crypto Market Behaving This Way?

It's no secret that cryptocurrencies are now effectively traded against the US dollar, which means their performance is largely influenced by the dollar's dynamics against other currencies.

Both Bitcoin and Litecoin have recently shown a clear correlation with movements in the US dollar. While local factors—such as the conclusion of the US election and Trump's pro-crypto rhetoric—have played a role, the primary driver behind the stalling of the rally appears to be Trump's concern over the global role of the US dollar.

Trump has expressed a desire to preserve the dollar's influence, which was reportedly a topic of discussion during his recent call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The US economy relies heavily on maintaining at least significant dominance of the dollar in global trade and finance. Therefore, it is unlikely that Trump would actively promote cryptocurrency adoption at the expense of the dollar. This represents a key fundamental constraint on further token appreciation.

Another major factor is the expectation that Trump's policies favoring import restrictions will strengthen the dollar. The recent rise in inflation data makes it unlikely that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates in the near term. A stronger dollar typically weighs on Bitcoin and other digital assets, but the uncertainty surrounding Trump's political and economic strategy has left investors hesitant. The key question remains: when will this uncertainty end? That is something no one can answer definitively.

For now, sideways movement is likely to continue in the crypto markets, with sporadic price spikes in both directions.

Market Forecast

Bitcoin

The token is trading within a narrow range, impacted by the factors discussed above. Moving between $93,970 and $98,476, Bitcoin could see some local support and push toward the upper boundary, but overall, it is likely to remain range-bound for some time.

Litecoin

Litecoin is also trading in a range, though wider at $96.85–$137.50. For now, it appears stuck within this zone. A failure to break above the upper boundary could lead to a local reversal and a decline toward the lower end of the range.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.